6007 Ceniza Dr · Olivarez, TX 78599

$164,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1998 10,000 sqft lot $102/sqft · 42% below area Est $282k · 42% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for the perfect starter home or a savvy investment opportunity? This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is ready for you to make it your own! Featuring a spacious backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, this property is ideally located just down the street from the popular Weslaco City Park. Whether you are looking to grow your rental portfolio or find a great place to raise a family, this home offers incredible potential in a fantastic location. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Weslaco city park
• Fantastic location

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• WESLACO CITY PARK
• FANTASTIC LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,480 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Raul A Gonzalez Jr El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 618 students, 92% FRL); Mary Hoge Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 938 students, 93% FRL); Weslaco East H S (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,004 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 59% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,545
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -41.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5512 Tyler St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-12%)	13mo	$199,900	$143	40
3608 Brook Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+10%)	16mo	$298,000	$169	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-33,511
• Equity at exit: $24,453

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-37,983
• Equity at exit: $14,180

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78599

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,176/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $144,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-63	+0% $-110	+5% $-156	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-163	+0% $-110	+5% $-56	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-68	base $-110	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5910 Ceniza Dr Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	0.05mi
7601 Farm to Market 88 Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,350	$0.90	25d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $164,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,999 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,999 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,999 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,999 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,999 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,999 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,999 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,999 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    price $165,999 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Looking for the perfect starter home or a savvy investment opportunity? This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is ready for you to make it your own! Featuring a spacious backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, this property is ideally located just down the street from the popular Weslaco City Park. Whether you are looking to grow your rental portfolio or find a great place to raise a family, this home offers incredible potential in a fantastic location. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-03-21
    listed $169,999 Active 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Looking for the perfect starter home or a savvy investment opportunity? This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is ready for you to make it your own! Featuring a spacious backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, this property is ideally located just down the street from the popular Weslaco City Park. Whether you are looking to grow your rental portfolio or find a great place to raise a family, this home offers incredible potential in a fantastic location. Schedule your showing today!

20. 1992-04-20
    soldstatus
21. 1992-02-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,001 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$825/yr (+$69/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,176
• − Insurance: −$1,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$4,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$994
• After-tax cash flow: $-321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Olivarez

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1480
• US rank: #25356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olivarez, TX
• City population: 35,400
• Population (ZIP): 35,400

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 42% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 90%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 80%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.47%
• Current HPI: 243.5537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $165,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $169,999 MCALLENMLS
• 1992-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,176 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.