447 Masthead

Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$195,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,709 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-112/mo
• Annual: $-1,348/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 431 students, 74% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.