447 Masthead · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,709 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2021 8,090 sqft lot $114/sqft · 28% below area Est $269k · 28% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW ROOF! Come on home! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Gun Barrel City is full of charm and just a short walk to Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2021 on a pier and beam foundation, it offers 1,709 square feet of comfortable, open living space in the laid-back Harbor Point subdivision. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, your first home, or a low-key getaway near the water, this place checks all the boxes. Come enjoy the lake life! Schedule your showing today! Motivated seller will consider all reasonable offers! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• 8,090 sq ft lot
• Built 2021

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• PIER AND BEAM FOUNDATION
• SHORT WALK TO CEDAR CREEK LAKE
• HARBOR POINT SUBDIVISION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 431 students, 74% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,353 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,222
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -27.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Windjammer Rd	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,700 (-0%)	1mo	$290,250	$171	64
264 Starboard Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-1%)	5mo	$259,800	$154	58
333 Port Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-11%)	2mo	$249,000	$164	56
310 Outboard Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-6%)	2mo	$275,000	$172	55
427 Jib Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-8%)	9mo	$649,900	$412	52
338 Schooner Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,849 (+8%)	10mo	$155,000	$84	51
304 Anchor Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (-2%)	14mo	$314,999	$188	51
317 Windjammer Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,891 (+11%)	14mo	$265,000	$140	45
905 Harbor Point Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,523 (-11%)	8mo	$315,000	$207	43
319 Coral Reef St	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,786 (+4%)	12mo	$279,999	$157	40
144 First Mate Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,951 (+14%)	13mo	$330,000	$169	39
238 Seacraft Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,964 (+15%)	13mo	$279,980	$143	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-43,407
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-64,992
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,303/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $175,161

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-57	+0% $-112	+5% $-167	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-176	+0% $-112	+5% $-49	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-63	base $-112	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
459 Admiral Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,549	$1.03	3d	1	0.36mi
330 Flagship Ln Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,460	$0.97	3d	1	0.49mi
334 Bounding Main St Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,540	$0.96	3d	1	0.51mi
306 Outboard Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,264	$0.79	3d	1	0.55mi
312 Bounding Main Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,564	$0.98	0d	1	0.60mi
313 Bounding Main St Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,514	$0.95	45d	1	0.63mi
304 Outboard Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,514	$0.95	45d	1	0.68mi
318 Bay Ct Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,264	$0.84	3d	1	0.80mi
204 Wildflower Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,624	$1.20	45d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-03-31
    price $195,000 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    BRAND NEW ROOF! Come on home! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Gun Barrel City is full of charm and just a short walk to Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2021 on a pier and beam foundation, it offers 1,709 square feet of comfortable, open living space in the laid-back Harbor Point subdivision. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, your first home, or a low-key getaway near the water, this place checks all the boxes. Come enjoy the lake life! Schedule your showing today! Motivated seller will consider all reasonable offers! Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-02-23
    listed $205,000 Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    BRAND NEW ROOF! Come on home! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Gun Barrel City is full of charm and just a short walk to Cedar Creek Lake. Built in 2021 on a pier and beam foundation, it offers 1,709 square feet of comfortable, open living space in the laid-back Harbor Point subdivision. Whether you’re looking for a weekend retreat, your first home, or a low-key getaway near the water, this place checks all the boxes. Come enjoy the lake life! Schedule your showing today! Motivated seller will consider all reasonable offers! Schedule your showing today!

20. 2025-10-20
    historical
21. 2025-07-12
    price $235,000
22. 2025-06-05
    listed $250,000 Active
23. 2020-03-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,303 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$266/yr (+$22/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,303
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,130
• After-tax cash flow: $-217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2020-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+43.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,303 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.