14306 Duckett Rd

Brandywine, MD 20613

$125,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,142/mo
• Annual: $13,704/yr
• Cap rate: 17.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.15%
• DSCR: 2.74
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#364 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $125k implies a 762% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 4.2% in Brandywine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.