14306 Duckett Rd · Brandywine, MD 20613

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1959 0.89 ac lot $134/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPEN HOUSE MONDAY, JUNE 1, 2026 FROM 9:30 AM - 10:30 AM List Price is Opening Bid. Online Auction Only! Bidding begins Saturday, May 30th, and ends Thursday, June 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM. This single-family detached rancher offers comfortable one-level living with additional space in the partially finished walk-out basement. Situated on approximately 0.889 acres per SDAT, the property offers expansive outdoor space with large front and rear yards. The home is in need of updating and some renovation, presenting an excellent opportunity for an owner-occupant to customize the home or for an investor seeking a potential flip opportunity. Conveniently located in the southern portion of Prince George

Key facts

• Private driveway
• One level living
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• EXPANSIVE OUTDOOR SPACE
• LARGE FRONT AND REAR YARDS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Above-grade finished area: 936 (assessor); Below-grade unfinished area: 936 (assessor)
• Construction: Frame construction; Other foundation; Above- and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water on the property

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil-fired); Electric hot water; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Two or more access exits

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 4.2% in Brandywine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#364 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $125k implies a 762% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.15%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,840
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -59.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5912 Accokeek Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	992 (+6%)	13mo	$310,000	$313	63
5909 Accokeek Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+15%)	24mo	$375,000	$349	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $52,612
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $140,011
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20613

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,667/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $1,142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,213	-5% $1,177	+0% $1,142	+5% $1,107	+10% $1,071
Rent	-10% $926	-5% $1,034	+0% $1,142	+5% $1,250	+10% $1,358
Rate	-1.0pp $1,205	-0.5pp $1,174	base $1,142	+0.5pp $1,110	+1.0pp $1,077

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   listed $125,000 Active 1857-char remark
8. 1960-06-10
   soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,667 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,667 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,667
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,619
• − Management: −$2,619
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $12,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,016
• After-tax cash flow: $10,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Brandywine

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #19759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandywine, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• City population: 17,590
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 17,590
• Household income: $151,422
• Rent vs Own: 6.0% rent · 94.0% own

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.19%
• Current HPI: 247.5504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+762.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1960-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,667 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.