19995 Star Rd

Siloam Springs, AR 72761

$148,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,199/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $44/mo
• Annual: $531/yr
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.28%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $41,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($531/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (19.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $120k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AR, #4,621 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Siloam Springs School District (town): math 44% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #53 of 238 in AR (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Delbert Pete & Pat Allen Ele (667 students, 62% FRL); Siloam Springs Intermediate School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade D-, #70 of 201 statewide, top 38%, 700 students, 59% FRL); Siloam Springs High School Conversion Charter (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #90 of 292 statewide, top 31%, 1,402 students, 49% FRL, charter).
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $148k implies a 429% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Siloam Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.