1821 Gerry Dr

Clovis, NM 88101

$165,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,091 sqft · Built 1964 · Other · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,237/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $1/mo
• Annual: $14/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($14/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (25.0% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#171 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Clovis Municipal Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #13 of 29 in NM (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cameo Elementary (282 students, 100% FRL); W D Gattis Middle School (539 students, 100% FRL); Clovis High (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #60 of 110 statewide, top 54%, 1,544 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.