1821 Gerry Dr · Clovis, NM 88101

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,091 sqft · Other · 60 Days on market

Built 1964 $151/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a cute home with charm and modern accents? This newly remodeled home is not just a beauty, it also is adorned with a new HVAC system! This is a gem with so much to offer. The layout and room sizes are perfect for a family looking at buying a starter home or even to downsize for comfort. Come fall in love with the vibrant, fresh and cozy feel of this home today.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1964
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($14/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#171 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Clovis Municipal Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #13 of 29 in NM (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,747 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,132
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -3.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,500
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,680
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88101

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $48	+0% $1	+5% $-45	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-48	+0% $1	+5% $50	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $43	base $1	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Echols Ave Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$948	$1.04	45d	5	0.50mi
1808 Debra St Clovis, NM	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,400	$0.99	45d	1	0.55mi
2100 Mitchell St Unit 14 Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	743	$750	$1.01	45d	1	0.60mi
109 State Ave Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	816	$2,000	$2.45	45d	1	0.92mi
532 Circle Dr Clovis, NM	3.0	1.5	1114	$1,100	$0.99	45d	1	1.14mi
513 Tucker Ave Clovis, NM	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,150	$0.98	45d	1	1.18mi
3205 N Main St Unit 301 Clovis, NM	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,350	$1.33	45d	1	1.28mi
1509 W Llano Estacado Blvd Unit b Clovis, NM	2.0	2.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	45d	1	1.30mi
401 E 5th St Unit 5 Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	45d	1	1.33mi
2517 Ross St Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	991	$950	$0.96	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $165,000 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Looking for a cute home with charm and modern accents? This newly remodeled home is not just a beauty, it also is adorned with a new HVAC system! This is a gem with so much to offer. The layout and room sizes are perfect for a family looking at buying a starter home or even to downsize for comfort. Come fall in love with the vibrant, fresh and cozy feel of this home today.

17. 2025-01-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 159.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$697
• After-tax cash flow: $711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clovis Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,532
• Composite: 33.52/100
• National rank: #5435
• State rank: #13 of 29 in NM

Livability — Clovis

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #22374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clovis, NM
• County: Curry County · 44,846 people
• City population: 44,846
• Metro: Clovis, NM
• Population (ZIP): 44,846
• Household income: $56,587
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1724.0

Population outlook (Curry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,742 people
• By 2030: 47,759 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 45,444 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 42,403 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 33,878 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 22,414 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 42% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Curry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 27.8% · R 70.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.79%
• Current HPI: 121.1877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.54%
• Metro: Clovis, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 NMMLS
• 2025-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $508 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.