20628 Water Station Run Rd SW

Lonaconing, MD 21539

$25,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $733/mo
• Annual: $8,791/yr
• Cap rate: 41.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.58%
• DSCR: 6.59
• 1% rule: 4.89%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $463 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#287 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.