20628 Water Station Run Rd SW · Lonaconing, MD 21539

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1920 2.49 ac lot Est $48k · 48% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group Website Bidding Platform Bidding begins 5/4/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 5/6/2026 @ 12:40 PM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $5,000. 2 Story Detached Home located in Allegany County.   Located on a generous approximately 2 1/2 Acre Lot Easy access to major traffic artery E Main St. Property is vacant.

Key facts

• 2.49 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 27 days

Tags

• 2 STORY DETACHED HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#287 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $463 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.58%
• DSCR: 6.59
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $47,676
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20628 Water Station Run Rd SW	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,644 (0%)	1mo	$48,000	$29	99
21108 Willow Tree Ln SW	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,470 (-11%)	1mo	$205,000	$139	47
7 High St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-1%)	19mo	$35,000	$21	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $43,886
• Equity at exit: $5,030

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.23×
• Total profit: $99,618
• Equity at exit: $4,467

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21539

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,091/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $294

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $25,000 Active
3. 2026-02-17
   historical
4. 2025-10-19
   price $75,000
5. 2025-08-31
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$1,091
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $8,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,153
• After-tax cash flow: $6,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lonaconing

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #14826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,846

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Romanian 3% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 1% Korean 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Current HPI: 188.3299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-75.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-31 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,091 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.