158 Choctaw Dr

Big Bass Lake, PA 18347

$238,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 228 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,036/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $3/mo
• Annual: $41/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $66,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($41/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#763 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 12765% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Big Bass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.