158 Choctaw Dr · Coolbaugh, PA 18347

$238,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1981 0.30 ac lot $313/sqft · at area comps Est $229k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Quaint Cabin! Step inside this charming retreat being sold fully furnished, ready for you to move right in and start making memories. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace in the living room after a fun-filled day on the ski slopes! Located in the amenity-filled, gated community of Arrowhead Lakes, you'll enjoy access to two private lakes for fishing and swimming, four sandy beaches, and endless year-round activities. Fire up the grill for a BBQ on the deck or simply sit back and enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Whether you're looking for a vacation getaway, investment property, or forever home, this cabin is perfect for every season. Conveniently located just a short drive to all the best Pocono attractions, including casinos, indoor water parks, outlet shopping, places of worship, and more. Don't miss out, schedule your showing today and experience the charm of cabin living!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Sandy beaches
• Private lakes

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE LAKES
• SANDY BEACHES
• BBQ ON THE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($41/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 12765% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $203,641 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,640
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: 4.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
182 Maxatawny Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	768 (+1%)	10mo	$170,000	$221	65
5146 Cresco Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	760 (0%)	11mo	$220,000	$289	59
183 Pontiac Path	0.34mi	3/1.0	840 (+10%)	10mo	$212,000	$252	58
272 Wyalusing Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	865 (+14%)	6mo	$215,000	$249	53
5110 Tenicum Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	864 (+14%)	1mo	$230,000	$266	52
5345 Conoquenissing Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	864 (+14%)	2mo	$224,500	$260	48
229 Pontiac Path	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	844 (+11%)	14mo	$224,000	$265	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,723
• Equity at exit: $52,103

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,165
• Equity at exit: $50,275

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18347

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,097/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,032

Max offer price $238,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $71	+0% $3	+5% $-64	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-77	+0% $3	+5% $84	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $64	base $3	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $238,000 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $238,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,000 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $238,000 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    historical $1,850
16. 2026-01-23
    listed $1,850
17. 2025-11-06
    listed $238,000 Active 910-char remark

    Show marketing remark (910 chars)

    Welcome to the Quaint Cabin! Step inside this charming retreat being sold fully furnished, ready for you to move right in and start making memories. Cozy up by the wood-burning fireplace in the living room after a fun-filled day on the ski slopes! Located in the amenity-filled, gated community of Arrowhead Lakes, you'll enjoy access to two private lakes for fishing and swimming, four sandy beaches, and endless year-round activities. Fire up the grill for a BBQ on the deck or simply sit back and enjoy the peaceful sounds of nature. Whether you're looking for a vacation getaway, investment property, or forever home, this cabin is perfect for every season. Conveniently located just a short drive to all the best Pocono attractions, including casinos, indoor water parks, outlet shopping, places of worship, and more. Don't miss out, schedule your showing today and experience the charm of cabin living!

18. 2025-03-28
    historical $1,800
19. 2025-01-07
    listed $1,800
20. 2024-03-01
    historical $1,750
21. 2023-12-11
    historical
22. 2023-12-03
    price $1,750
23. 2023-11-13
    listed $2,000
24. 2023-10-16
    listed $250,000 Active
25. 2023-10-16
    listed $250,000 Active
26. 2022-09-09
    soldstatus $230,000
27. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus $230,000
28. 2022-07-18
    listed $199,000
29. 2020-10-06
    soldstatus $94,500
30. 2019-04-05
    listed $89,900
31. 2010-01-20
    soldstatus $83,500
32. 2003-12-22
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,097 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,429 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 10.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,097
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$4,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$964
• After-tax cash flow: $1,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Coolbaugh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,535

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Current HPI: 202.3693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-97.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Rental Removed $1,850 PMAR
• 2026-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,850 PMAR
• 2025-11-06 Listed $238,000 PMAR
• 2025-03-28 Rental Removed $1,800 PMAR
• 2025-01-07 Listed for Rent $1,800 PMAR
• 2024-03-01 Rental Removed $1,750 PMAR
• 2023-12-11 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2023-12-03 Price Changed $1,750 PMAR
• 2023-11-13 Listed for Rent $2,000 PMAR
• 2023-10-16 Listed $250,000 PMAR
• 2023-10-16 Listed $250,000 GLVRMLS
• 2022-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-24 Sold (MLS) $230,000 PMAR
• 2022-07-18 Listed $199,000 PMAR
• 2020-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records
• 2019-04-05 Listed $89,900 PMAR
• 2010-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2003-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,097 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.