77-79 Harrison Ave

Llewellyn Park, NJ 07052-5913

$799,000B

8 bd · 4.0 ba · — sqft · Built 1918 · MultiFamily · Under Contract · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$1,332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,192
• Net cashflow: $2,725/mo
• Annual: $32,701/yr
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.62%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $799k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($33k/yr) — positive. Per door: $681/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $799k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($787k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $787k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Orange Public Schools (suburban): math 23% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #230 of 472 in NJ (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.9% in Llewellyn Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — The exterior siding is weathered and stained, indicating significant damage that needs to be addressed.
• Major: flooring — The flooring in the living room and kitchen is old and worn, requiring replacement.
• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — The kitchen cabinets are in fair condition but could benefit from updates or replacement.
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — The bathroom fixtures appear outdated and may need replacement or updating.