1404 Sebastian Dr

Forney, TX 75126

$219,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,067/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax + insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-259/mo
• Annual: $-3,110/yr
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $61,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 763 students, 50% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?