129 Mill St

Orange Lake, NY 12589

$348,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,747/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax + insurance: −$453
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-898/mo
• Annual: $-10,771/yr
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.05%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $97,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-898 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (45.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (49.8% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallkill Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #279 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $234k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.