129 Mill St · Orange Lake, NY 12589

$348,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1935 2.00 ac lot $353/sqft · 14% below area Est $406k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This charming 2 BR, 1BA has been beautifully maintained and has a newly replaced roof (as of 11/07/20), updated electrical panel, hardwood floors, and other up to date maintenance that will put a new home buyers mind at ease. This is perfect for the starting out buyer, or the one looking to downsize. Lots of land for expansion or to enjoy the company of friends on 2 full acres of flat property. Then rest easy at night or when away knowing a security system with cameras and recorded video protects you and your home. Located in Wallkill Schools, this home is priced right, ready to sell and won't last long. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1935

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-898 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (45.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (49.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallkill Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #279 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $234k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,722 (49.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.05%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,360
• List price: $348,000
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $132,309
• Equity at exit: $313,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $434,484
• Equity at exit: $676,087

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12589

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 16.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,695/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,883

Max offer price $189,435

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-26
   listed $348,000 Active
2. 2026-04-15
   historical
3. 2021-02-11
   soldstatus $234,500
4. 2021-01-19
   soldstatus $235,000 Closed 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming 2 BR, 1BA has been beautifully maintained and has a newly replaced roof (as of 11/07/20), updated electrical panel, hardwood floors, and other up to date maintenance that will put a new home buyers mind at ease. This is perfect for the starting out buyer, or the one looking to downsize. Lots of land for expansion or to enjoy the company of friends on 2 full acres of flat property. Then rest easy at night or when away knowing a security system with cameras and recorded video protects you and your home. Located in Wallkill Schools, this home is priced right, ready to sell and won't last long. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

5. 2020-12-30
   status Pending 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming 2 BR, 1BA has been beautifully maintained and has a newly replaced roof (as of 11/07/20), updated electrical panel, hardwood floors, and other up to date maintenance that will put a new home buyers mind at ease. This is perfect for the starting out buyer, or the one looking to downsize. Lots of land for expansion or to enjoy the company of friends on 2 full acres of flat property. Then rest easy at night or when away knowing a security system with cameras and recorded video protects you and your home. Located in Wallkill Schools, this home is priced right, ready to sell and won't last long. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

6. 2020-11-21
   listed $230,000 Active 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming 2 BR, 1BA has been beautifully maintained and has a newly replaced roof (as of 11/07/20), updated electrical panel, hardwood floors, and other up to date maintenance that will put a new home buyers mind at ease. This is perfect for the starting out buyer, or the one looking to downsize. Lots of land for expansion or to enjoy the company of friends on 2 full acres of flat property. Then rest easy at night or when away knowing a security system with cameras and recorded video protects you and your home. Located in Wallkill Schools, this home is priced right, ready to sell and won't last long. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

7. 2020-11-10
   historical $230,000 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Welcome home! This charming 2 BR, 1BA has been beautifully maintained and has a newly replaced roof (as of 11/07/20), updated electrical panel, hardwood floors, and other up to date maintenance that will put a new home buyers mind at ease. This is perfect for the starting out buyer, or the one looking to downsize. Lots of land for expansion or to enjoy the company of friends on 2 full acres of flat property. Then rest easy at night or when away knowing a security system with cameras and recorded video protects you and your home. Located in Wallkill Schools, this home is priced right, ready to sell and won't last long. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

8. 2014-10-20
   soldstatus $159,700
9. 2014-10-17
   soldstatus $159,700 Sold
10. 2014-10-17
    price $159,700
11. 2014-10-17
    soldstatus $159,700
12. 2014-09-02
    historical Pending
13. 2014-09-02
    price $172,000
14. 2014-07-03
    listed $172,000 Active
15. 2014-07-03
    listed $172,000
16. 1999-01-11
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,695 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,788 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,093/yr (+$91/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$3,695
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable loss: −$17,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallkill Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,323
• Composite: 49.06/100
• National rank: #2057
• State rank: #279 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,639

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.97%
• Current HPI: 323.1502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+397.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $348,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $234,500 Public Records
• 2021-01-19 Sold (MLS) $235,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-21 Listed $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-10 Coming Soon $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $159,700 Public Records
• 2014-10-17 Price Changed $159,700 HGMLS
• 2014-10-17 Sold (MLS) $159,700 HGMLS
• 2014-10-17 Sold (MLS) $159,700 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-02 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2014-09-02 Price Changed $172,000 HGMLS
• 2014-07-03 Listed $172,000 HGMLS
• 2014-07-03 Listed $172,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,695 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.