41144 Morgan Ave

Pennington Gap, VA 24277

$119,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Active · 437 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $197/mo
• Annual: $2,368/yr
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (2.8% below list).
• It's been on market 437 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#410 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flatwoods Elementary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 302 students, 83% FRL); Pennington Middle (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 100% FRL); Lee High (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B-, #226 of 319 statewide, top 72%, 781 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 58% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 437 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.