Pelican End Plan

Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$339,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,661 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,090
• Tax + insurance: −$664
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-463/mo
• Annual: $-5,559/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $111,608

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-463 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (14.7% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1356 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 95% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Port St. Lucie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Paint appears slightly faded