Pelican End Plan · Port St. Lucie, FL 34987

$339,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,661 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pelican End features a bright, open layout with a spacious kitchen flowing into the great room ideal for entertaining. Upstairs, enjoy a roomy loft, convenient laundry space, and a private primary suite with dual walk-in closets for added comfort.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 118 days

Tags

• MODERN TOWNHOME LIVING
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $398,601.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-463 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Port St. Lucie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1356 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 95% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,048 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,601
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -14.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12767 SW Orvieto Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+1%)	1mo	$389,900	$232	82
9597 SW Royal Poinciana Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-3%)	3mo	$375,000	$233	68
9742 SW Triton Way	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+10%)	1mo	$399,000	$218	66
12170 SW Rimini Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-3%)	3mo	$368,000	$228	66
9868 SW Triton Way	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+10%)	1mo	$399,000	$218	65
9808 SW Triton Way	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+10%)	0mo	$395,000	$216	64
9473 SW Libertas Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-10%)	3mo	$337,500	$225	61
9401 SW Libertas Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-10%)	2mo	$342,000	$228	58
9763 SW Chestwood Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,609 (-3%)	1mo	$365,000	$227	58
13321 SW Mazzano St	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-3%)	3mo	$375,868	$233	58
10026 SW Arezzo Rd	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-3%)	3mo	$360,000	$224	54
13313 SW Mazzano St	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+7%)	4mo	$422,074	$237	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-94,722
• Equity at exit: $59,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-123,032
• Equity at exit: $34,464

Cash invested: $111,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $419,999 ($240/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1356
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,090
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$498 /mo · $5,979/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,487

Max offer price $331,566

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-188	-5% $-326	+0% $-463	+5% $-601	+10% $-739
Rent	-10% $-692	-5% $-578	+0% $-463	+5% $-349	+10% $-234
Rate	-1.0pp $-263	-0.5pp $-362	base $-463	+0.5pp $-567	+1.0pp $-672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,650
• Closing costs: $11,958
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13138 SW Valletta Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1727	$2,599	$1.50	15d	27	0.06mi
12865 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,700	$1.61	70d	1	0.08mi
12845 SW Forli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,800	$1.59	63d	1	0.09mi
9670 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,700	$1.80	63d	1	0.19mi
9796 SW Santini Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1929	$3,500	$1.81	63d	1	0.37mi
9509 SW Libertas Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,800	$1.86	72d	1	0.37mi
12271 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,400	$1.60	72d	1	0.44mi
12134 SW Rimini Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	72d	1	0.51mi
12500 Roma Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,657	$2.74	63d	7	0.62mi
11590 SW Roma Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1179	$3,071	$2.60	63d	36	0.76mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	70d	1	0.79mi
9231 SW Pepoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,750	$1.67	72d	1	0.79mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 9-303 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,410	$2.15	63d	1	0.79mi
11590 Roma Way Unit 7-105 Port St. Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,660	$2.10	63d	1	0.79mi
12813 SW Ambra St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1828	$3,200	$1.75	63d	1	0.85mi
9184 SW Esule Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,750	$1.54	63d	1	0.97mi
9084 SW Arco Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,500	$2.11	72d	1	1.00mi
11344 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$3,700	$1.74	63d	1	1.06mi
9630 SW Flowermound Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,495	$1.42	63d	1	1.06mi
14058 SW Surina St Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1894	$2,990	$1.58	63d	1	1.10mi
11477 SW Patterson St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,600	$1.58	72d	1	1.10mi
11267 SW Pietra Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1667	$3,200	$1.92	72d	1	1.13mi
10936 SW Vasari Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.5	2100	$3,450	$1.64	63d	1	1.13mi
10057 SW Newberry Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,500	$1.52	70d	1	1.14mi
10231 SW Latium Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.0	2129	$4,900	$2.30	72d	1	1.16mi
11160 SW Lunata Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1968	$3,850	$1.96	72d	1	1.18mi
14143 SW Safi Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,900	$1.76	63d	1	1.22mi
9728 SW Eastbrook Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,300	$1.73	63d	1	1.24mi
12401 SW Arabella Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,650	$1.38	72d	1	1.26mi
14075 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,800	$1.46	72d	1	1.26mi
10495 SW Orana Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1657	$3,000	$1.81	72d	1	1.29mi
14122 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,700	$1.61	63d	1	1.30mi
14162 SW Thorens Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.5	1754	$2,650	$1.51	72d	1	1.30mi
10736 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,700	$1.38	72d	1	1.31mi
9282 SW Miracoli Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$4,900	$2.54	72d	1	1.33mi
10574 SW Cambria Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$3,000	$1.57	72d	1	1.35mi
10695 SW Prato Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,850	$1.49	63d	1	1.38mi
10241 SW Newberry Ave Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1448	$2,855	$1.97	15d	15	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $351,390

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: New construction planPelican End model
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1661Located on SW street prefix (SW Forli Way)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Pelican End)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $339,990 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $339,990 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $339,990 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $339,990 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $339,990 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $339,990 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $339,990 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $339,990 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $339,990 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $339,990 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $339,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $339,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $339,990 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $339,990 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $339,990 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $339,990 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $339,990 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $339,990 Active 95 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $339,990 Active 94 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $339,990 Active 93 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $339,990 Active 92 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $339,990 Active 91 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $339,990 Active 90 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $339,990 Active 89 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $339,990 Active 88 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 87 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,990 Active 86 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $339,990 Active 85 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $339,990 Active 84 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 83 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $339,990 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $374,891 Active 81 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $374,891 Active 80 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $374,891 Active 79 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    pricedays on market $374,891 Active 78 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $339,990 Active 77 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $339,990 Active 76 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $339,990 Active 74 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $339,990 Active 72 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $339,990 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    pricedays on market $365,819 Active 68 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on market $356,690 Active 67 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $356,390 Active 66 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $356,390 Active 65 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $356,390 Active 63 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $356,390 Active 62 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $356,690 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on market $356,690 Active 59 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $334,990 Active 58 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $334,990 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,328
• − Property taxes: −$5,979
• − Insurance: −$1,993
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$11,596
• Taxable loss: −$12,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,038
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $41,525–$74,745 screening

The home is in fair condition with average systems and minimal repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and HVAC maintenance would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears slightly faded

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary West Gate K-8 School C+ FL #751/2,144 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle Southport Middle School D+ FL #300/571 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High St. Lucie West Centennial High F FL #351/667 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 338,016 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 23% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $351,390

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: New construction planPelican End model
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1661Located on SW street prefix (SW Forli Way)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Pelican End)