186 WAYNE St Unit D-219

Jersey City, NJ 07302

$399,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 643 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$731
• HOA: −$665
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-1,244/mo
• Annual: $-14,923/yr
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.64%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $399k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (45.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (28.8% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in NJ, #2,955 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Jersey City Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 472 in NJ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Michael Conti School (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #647 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 672 students, 41% FRL); Academy I (math 60% / reading 76%, grade A-, #14 of 431 statewide, top 3%, 403 students, 46% FRL); James J Ferris High School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #346 of 399 statewide, top 88%, 1,348 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 69% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jersey City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 13900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.1% in Jersey City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?