30338 W Wild Hazel Dr

Buckeye, AZ 85396

$359,740F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,549/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax + insurance: −$600
• HOA: −$184
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-656/mo
• Annual: $-7,877/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $100,727

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tartesso Elementary School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #461 of 1,109 statewide, top 42%, 355 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.