30338 W Wild Hazel Dr · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$359,740

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · Land · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 6,402 sqft lot $184/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller will provide a credit towards a rate buydown and closing costs with preferred lender. Ask us how to save thousands over the life of your loan. Teravalis is a new, master-planned community in Buckeye, AZ. Residents enjoy exclusive amenities including a community pool, community center, fitness center, and basketball court, along with convenient access to local attractions and activities such as Sundance park and golf courses. This home comes fully equipped with all brand-new stainless steel kitchen appliances and features 18x18 tile flooring, elegant quartz countertops, and maple latte cabinetry, designed for everyday living with style. Photos are of actual home. A copy of the public

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community pool
• Community center

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• FITNESS CENTER
• BASKETBALL COURT
• EXCLUSIVE AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $184 (includes other items — see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Desert back yard; Block fencing; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Non-laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Energy Star (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tartesso Elementary School (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #461 of 1,109 statewide, top 42%, 355 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $254,894 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-98,894
• Equity at exit: $53,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-134,965
• Equity at exit: $31,104

Cash invested: $100,727 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,396/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$184
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,380

Max offer price $264,755

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,935
• Closing costs: $10,792
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $184 · $2,208/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   price $359,740
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $363,740 Active
4. 2026-01-01
   historical
5. 2025-12-08
   price $385,990
6. 2025-11-18
   soldstatus $448,680
7. 2025-11-17
   price $379,990
8. 2025-11-10
   price $380,990
9. 2025-10-29
   listed $382,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,151
• − Property taxes: −$5,396
• − Insurance: −$1,799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,447
• − Management: −$2,447
• − HOA: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$10,465
• Taxable loss: −$14,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254)
• NCES district ID: 0407170
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,981
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7666
• State rank: #117 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $359,740 ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $363,740 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $385,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $448,680 Public Records
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $379,990 ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $380,990 ARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $382,990 ARMLS