9446 Bear Springs Rd

Brewerton, NY 13029

$194,900C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,428 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,252/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $266/mo
• Annual: $3,197/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brewerton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 375 students, 36% FRL); Central Square Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 45% FRL); Paul V Moore High School (math 91% / reading 75%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,101 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Central Square Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $139k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.5% in Brewerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.