9446 Bear Springs Rd · Brewerton, NY 13029

$194,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1975 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-Bedroom Raised Ranch with Finished Walkout Basement – Tons of Potential! Spacious raised ranch offering 4 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, including a finished walkout basement featuring a bar, family room, and additional bedroom, perfect for entertaining or extended living space. This is one of the larger raised ranch models, offering plenty of room to grow. While the property does need some TLC, it presents a fantastic opportunity to bring your vision to life and create your dream home. Ideally located close to local amenities, major highways, and the Micron site, making it a great option for commuters and future investment. With a little imagination and effort, this home can truly shine

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water connected; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electrical system
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Property faces city street
• Construction: Built previously (existing); Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating
• Interior features: Dry bar; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Sliding glass doors; Storage; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.5% in Brewerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $139k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $189,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $420,044
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9406 Bear Springs Rd	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,432 (+0%)	8mo	$1,150,000	$473	79
9443 Bear Springs Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,362 (-3%)	16mo	$292,500	$124	75
5312 Jillian Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,136 (-12%)	7mo	$320,000	$150	61
5351 Jillian Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,142 (-12%)	8mo	$370,000	$173	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,480
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,790
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13029

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,912/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $322	+0% $266	+5% $211	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $177	+0% $266	+5% $355	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $316	base $266	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9595 Brewerton Rd Brewerton, NY	3.0	1.0	2751	$1,800	$0.65	15d	1	1.03mi
5399 Shore Dr Unit NA Brewerton, NY	3.0	2.0	1980	$2,800	$1.41	22d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $194,900
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $214,900 Active
4. 2006-07-28
   soldstatus $139,390

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,912 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,912 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$4,912
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$54
• After-tax cash flow: $3,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Square Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606900
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,807
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5035
• State rank: #507 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brewerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11214

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brewerton, NY
• City population: 7,594
• Population (ZIP): 7,594

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.58%
• Current HPI: 333.4803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+39.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $194,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $214,900 CNYIS
• 2006-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $139,390 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,912 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.