1201 S Chestnut St #601

Ellensburg, WA 98926

$94,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Pending · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,230/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $1,179/mo
• Annual: $14,142/yr
• Cap rate: 21.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.45%
• DSCR: 3.38
• 1% rule: 2.36%
• Cash to close: $26,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#64 in WA, #1,157 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Ellensburg School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #148 of 291 in WA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellensburg High School (938 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 302 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 433 units permitted in Kittitas County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kittitas County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 2.8% in Ellensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.