1201 S Chestnut St #601 · Ellensburg, WA 98926

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2023 Est $70k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new and move-in ready! This stylish 3 bed, 2 bath home offers comfort and modern design throughout. The spacious main suite features a luxurious ensuite with a soaking tub—perfect for relaxing. Enjoy a contemporary kitchen with plenty of cabinet and counter space, plus efficient forced air heating. Located in the Aspen Grove community with beautiful rural and hillside views, yet just minutes from shops, parks, KVH Hospital, and schools.

Key facts

• Ensuite
• Contemporary kitchen
• Rural views

Tags

• ENSUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• FORCED AIR HEATING
• ASPEN GROVE COMMUNITY
• RURAL VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 2.8% in Ellensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#64 in WA, #1,157 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Ellensburg School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #148 of 291 in WA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellensburg High School (938 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 302 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 433 units permitted in Kittitas County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kittitas County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.45%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,696
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1201 S Chestnut #200	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,054 (-0%)	23mo	$70,000	$66	76
1201 S Chestnut St #500	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,026 (-3%)	21mo	$53,500	$52	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $54,416
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $123,198
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98926

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $575/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $1,179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 S Anderson St Ellensburg, WA	2.0	2.0	1272	$2,650	$2.08	43d	1	0.58mi
706 E 3rd Ave Ellensburg, WA	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,250	$1.90	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   status Active
3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-16
   listed $94,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $575 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 61.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$575
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $13,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,212
• After-tax cash flow: $10,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellensburg School District
• NCES district ID: 5302460
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,944
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #6026
• State rank: #148 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ellensburg

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #1157

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellensburg, WA
• County: Kittitas County · 34,353 people
• City population: 34,353
• Metro: Ellensburg, WA
• Population (ZIP): 34,353
• Household income: $71,137
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2076.0

Population outlook (Kittitas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,605 people
• By 2030: 51,628 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 57,361 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 63,241 · +30.1%
• By 2075: 79,310 · +63.2%
• By 2100: 94,769 · +95.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kittitas

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.1% · R 55.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+14.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.62%
• Current HPI: 211.3198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Ellensburg, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listed $94,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $575 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.