173-175 Shirley St #2

Winthrop Town, MA 02152

$300,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 698 sqft · Built 1900 · Condo · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-369/mo
• Annual: $-4,426/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.7% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#72 in MA, #3,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Winthrop (suburban): math 30% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #200 of 302 in MA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.3%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,207 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (1,961 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $220k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Winthrop Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?