173-175 Shirley St #2 · Winthrop Town, MA 02152

$300,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 698 sqft · Condo public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1900 $430/sqft · 22% below area Est $384k · 22% under $400/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

6 unit building. Eat-in kitchen. Will have condo dues,flood & master insurance. Coin-op laundry. Close to beach. Good sized master bedroom. Yearly budget on file.

Key facts

• $400 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $400; HOA covers heat, water, sewer, building and grounds maintenance, snow removal, and trash; Association amenities include hot water and laundry; Pets allowed with restrictions; Community features: public transportation, shopping, tennis courts, park, walk/jog trails, golf, medical facility, laundromat, bike path, conservation area, highway access, house of worship, marina, private and public schools, T-Station, university

Exterior

• Parking: One assigned off-street parking space on stone/gravel; Open parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Electric for range
• Home design: Condominium; Low-rise building; Single-story; Ground-level unit / entry at grade; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Frame construction; Year built: approximate (public records)
• Exterior features: Ocean nearby; 0 to 1/10 mile to the beach; Public beach access; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor with closet and hardwood flooring; Second bedroom on the first floor with closet and hardwood flooring
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor with tiled tub and stone/ceramic tile flooring
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans in living room and master bedroom; Total of 4 rooms
• Laundry & utility: In-building laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Winthrop Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#72 in MA, #3,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Winthrop (suburban): math 30% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #200 of 302 in MA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.3%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,207 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (1,961 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $220k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,838 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,762
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -21.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-59,048
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,322
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02152

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 13.3%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,361/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,905

Max offer price $234,838

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 Veterans Rd Winthrop, MA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,945	$3.93	23d	44	0.05mi
20 Coral Ave Unit 6 Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,050	$3.42	20d	1	0.06mi
20 Coral Ave Unit 10 Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,050	$3.42	43d	1	0.06mi
53 Trident Ave #101 Winthrop, MA	2.0	1.0	678	$2,500	$3.69	43d	1	0.16mi
17 Cutler St Apt 103 Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,900	$3.17	17d	1	0.41mi
304 Main St Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	500	$2,300	$4.60	19d	1	0.42mi
97 Winthrop Shore Dr Unit 1R Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	550	$2,400	$4.36	43d	1	0.43mi
45 Sturgis St Unit 1 Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,100	$3.00	43d	1	0.57mi
600 Shirley St #01 Winthrop, MA	1.0	2.0	604	$2,650	$4.39	20d	1	0.76mi
789 Shirley St Unit 3 Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,300	$3.29	12d	1	1.02mi
740 Winthrop Ave Unit 12 Revere, MA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,595	$3.71	43d	1	1.36mi
23B Siren St Unit 2 Winthrop, MA	1.0	1.0	500	$2,025	$4.05	43d	1	1.37mi
93 Bennington St Revere, MA	2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$3,950	$5.21	43d	1	1.41mi
93 Bennington St Revere, MA	2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$3,995	$5.19	2d	7	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: insurance
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $300,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Price Changed 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $300,000 Price Changed 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $325,000 New 666-char remark
17. 2006-03-27
    soldstatus $220,000
18. 2004-08-24
    soldstatus $173,000
19. 2004-08-23
    soldstatus $173,000 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    6 unit building. Eat-in kitchen. Will have condo dues,flood & master insurance. Coin-op laundry. Close to beach. Good sized master bedroom. Yearly budget on file.

20. 2004-07-27
    historical 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    6 unit building. Eat-in kitchen. Will have condo dues,flood & master insurance. Coin-op laundry. Close to beach. Good sized master bedroom. Yearly budget on file.

21. 2004-03-06
    listed $184,500 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    6 unit building. Eat-in kitchen. Will have condo dues,flood & master insurance. Coin-op laundry. Close to beach. Good sized master bedroom. Yearly budget on file.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,026 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 28.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,361
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,308
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winthrop
• NCES district ID: 2513170
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,859
• Composite: 35.33/100
• National rank: #4960
• State rank: #200 of 302 in MA

Livability — Winthrop Town

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #3946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winthrop Town, MA
• County: Suffolk County · 777,335 people
• City population: 18,807
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• Population (ZIP): 18,759
• Household income: $116,167
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 862.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 915,464 people
• By 2030: 983,798 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 1,119,602 · +22.3%
• By 2050: 1,255,187 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 1,534,434 · +67.6%
• By 2100: 1,748,505 · +91.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+52.5) · D 74.8% · R 22.4% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 55.7pp · 2024: 52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+52.5 2020: D+63.2 2016: D+63.0 2012: D+56.7 2008: D+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.09%
• Current HPI: 344.6568
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.35%
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+62.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $300,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $315,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-05-06 Listed $325,000 MLS PIN
• 2006-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-23 Sold (MLS) $173,000 MLS PIN
• 2004-07-27 Listing Removed — MLS PIN
• 2004-03-06 Listed $184,500 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,361 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.