Crystal Bay Estates Plan

Carlsborg, WA 98382

$245,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$700
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-1,021/mo
• Annual: $-12,253/yr
• Cap rate: 3.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.42%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $117,586

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (2.8% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greywolf Elementary School (524 students, 50% FRL); Sequim Middle School (568 students, 52% FRL); Sequim Senior High (794 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 933 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.6% in Carlsborg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?