Crystal Bay Estates Plan · Carlsborg, WA 98382

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Larson Homes is one of Washington's trusted providers of modern Manufactured Homes, Tiny Homes and Park Model RVs. With years of experience serving our fellow Washingtonians, we've built a reputation for delivering high-quality factory-built housing at price points that can't be beaten. Our team is here to guide you through every step of the journey-helping you find a home that fits your lifestyle, budget, and long-term goals. Buying a home shouldn't be complicated-and with Larson Homes, it isn't. We have over 100 floor plans, ready to build and deliver to your prepared site. We offer a complete, one-stop homebuying experience: home selection, site preparation, financing guidance, delivery, installation, and ongoing service and support. Our priority is simple-give you a beautiful, affordable home and a smooth, stress-free path to ownership with a team that genuinely cares. We service all of Washington state and look forward to your call!

Key facts

• Listed 133 days

🏗️ New construction. The $245,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $419,450.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-977 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.8% in Carlsborg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greywolf Elementary School (524 students, 50% FRL); Sequim Middle School (568 students, 52% FRL); Sequim Senior High (794 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 773 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.98%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,450
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -41.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Smithfield Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,289 (-7%)	9mo	$240,000	$186	71
35 Moonshadow Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	0mo	$469,950	$305	58
121 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-11%)	2mo	$418,950	$340	58
180 Le Roux Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+9%)	4mo	$500,000	$330	57
123 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-11%)	2mo	$418,950	$340	57
143 Moonshadow Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-11%)	2mo	$419,950	$341	57
171 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-11%)	3mo	$419,950	$341	57
152 Moonshadow Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	3mo	$464,950	$302	56
170 E Runnion Rd	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	10mo	$305,000	$227	56
2171 Atterberry Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+12%)	15mo	$600,000	$385	38
102 Spencer Rd	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,224 (-12%)	16mo	$470,250	$384	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-130,150
• Equity at exit: $62,541

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-193,298
• Equity at exit: $36,266

Cash invested: $117,446 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $426,950 ($326/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98382

• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,200
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,292/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,669

Max offer price $278,095

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-687	-5% $-832	+0% $-977	+5% $-1,122	+10% $-1,267
Rent	-10% $-1,169	-5% $-1,073	+0% $-977	+5% $-881	+10% $-785
Rate	-1.0pp $-766	-0.5pp $-870	base $-977	+0.5pp $-1,086	+1.0pp $-1,196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,862
• Closing costs: $12,584
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $245,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $245,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $245,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $245,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $245,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $245,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $245,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $245,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $245,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $245,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $245,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-07-17
    days on market $245,000 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $245,000 Active 109 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 108 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $245,000 Active 107 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $245,000 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $245,000 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $245,000 Active 104 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 103 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 102 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,000 Active 101 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 100 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 99 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 98 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 97 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 96 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,000 Active 94 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,000 Active 93 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,000 Active 92 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $245,000 Active 90 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 87 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $245,000 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,000 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $245,000 Active 78 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,000 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 73 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 72 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,496
• − Property taxes: −$6,292
• − Insurance: −$2,097
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,335
• − Management: −$2,335
• − Depreciation: −$12,202
• Taxable loss: −$19,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,696
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good exterior and landscaping, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, flooring, etc.) — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Greywolf Elementary School Middle Sequim Middle School High Sequim Senior High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequim School District
• NCES district ID: 5307830
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,969
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #3312
• State rank: #64 of 291 in WA

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Carlsborg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #20503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsborg, WA
• County: Clallam County · 76,817 people
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,052
• Household income: $74,189
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Clallam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,817 people
• By 2030: 78,177 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 79,795 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 80,890 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 83,933 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 82,141 · +6.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clallam

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 52.6% · R 44.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+3.4 2016: R+1.6 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.89%
• Current HPI: 181.4372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $245,000 Zillow