Crystal Bay Estates Plan · Carlsborg, WA 98382

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,387 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Larson Homes is one of Washington's trusted providers of modern Manufactured Homes, Tiny Homes and Park Model RVs. With years of experience serving our fellow Washingtonians, we've built a reputation for delivering high-quality factory-built housing at price points that can't be beaten. Our team is here to guide you through every step of the journey-helping you find a home that fits your lifestyle, budget, and long-term goals. Buying a home shouldn't be complicated-and with Larson Homes, it isn't. We have over 100 floor plans, ready to build and deliver to your prepared site. We offer a complete, one-stop homebuying experience: home selection, site preparation, financing guidance, delivery, installation, and ongoing service and support. Our priority is simple-give you a beautiful, affordable home and a smooth, stress-free path to ownership with a team that genuinely cares. We service all of Washington state and look forward to your call!

Key facts

• Listed 83 days

🏗️ New construction. The $245,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $465,054.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 2.4% in Carlsborg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $230,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.13%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,054
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -47.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Smithfield Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,289 (-7%)	8mo	$240,000	$186	72
180 Le Roux Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+9%)	3mo	$500,000	$330	59
123 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-11%)	0mo	$418,950	$340	59
143 Moonshadow Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-11%)	1mo	$419,950	$341	58
171 Moonshadow Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-11%)	1mo	$419,950	$341	58
152 Moonshadow Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	1mo	$464,950	$302	57
170 E Runnion Rd	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	8mo	$305,000	$227	57
2171 Atterberry Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+12%)	14mo	$600,000	$385	39
102 Spencer Rd	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,224 (-12%)	15mo	$470,250	$384	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-159,189
• Equity at exit: $69,341

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-246,464
• Equity at exit: $40,209

Cash invested: $130,215 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98382

• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,976/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-1,317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,068

Max offer price $274,513

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,264
• Closing costs: $13,952
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $245,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $245,000 Active 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    Larson Homes is one of Washington's trusted providers of modern Manufactured Homes, Tiny Homes and Park Model RVs. With years of experience serving our fellow Washingtonians, we've built a reputation for delivering high-quality factory-built housing at price points that can't be beaten. Our team is here to guide you through every step of the journey-helping you find a home that fits your lifestyle, budget, and long-term goals. Buying a home shouldn't be complicated-and with Larson Homes, it isn't. We have over 100 floor plans, ready to build and deliver to your prepared site. We offer a complete, one-stop homebuying experience: home selection, site preparation, financing guidance, delivery, installation, and ongoing service and support. Our priority is simple-give you a beautiful, affordable home and a smooth, stress-free path to ownership with a team that genuinely cares. We service all of Washington state and look forward to your call!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,050
• − Property taxes: −$6,976
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − Depreciation: −$13,529
• Taxable loss: −$24,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,922
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good exterior and landscaping, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates (paint, flooring, etc.) — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, flooring, etc.) — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequim School District
• NCES district ID: 5307830
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,969
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #3312
• State rank: #64 of 291 in WA

Livability — Carlsborg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #20503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsborg, WA
• County: Clallam County · 31,052 people
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,052
• Household income: $74,189
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Clallam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,817 people
• By 2030: 78,177 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 79,795 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 80,890 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 83,933 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 82,141 · +6.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clallam

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 52.6% · R 44.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+3.4 2016: R+1.6 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.89%
• Current HPI: 181.4372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $245,000 Zillow