139 Davis Circle Cir

Pine Ridge, PA 18324

$238,500F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,685 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 262 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$67
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-420/mo
• Annual: $-5,040/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $66,780

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (29.7% below list).
• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,098 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11257% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.