139 Davis Circle Cir · Pine Ridge, PA 18324

$238,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,685 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 262 Days on market

Built 1995 0.57 ac lot Est $167k · 43% over $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED!! Great Opportunity!!! 5 Bedroom 2 Bath Bi-Level for Sale!! Entire inside of House was just Freshly Painted!!! Living room features a wood burning fireplace, Dining has a slider leading out to large back deck, Handicap accessible ramp, Large Master Bedroom with Master full bath , Large spacious Kitchen with Kitchen island. Lower level has 4 Bedrooms and a Full Bath. Nice level lot, Front and back yards. Community boasts: Pool, playground, pond, lake, Security, Road Maintenance and more. .. ..

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Community pool
• Community playground

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE RAMP
• LARGE BACK DECK
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (31.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,098 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11257% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $164,312 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,815
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4949 W Pine Ridge Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,700 (+1%)	21mo	$199,000	$117	69
229 Pocono Blvd	0.20mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+5%)	10mo	$80,000	$45	65
613 George Pl	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,771 (+5%)	6mo	$175,000	$99	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $8,516
• Equity at exit: $114,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $60,135
• Equity at exit: $181,372

Cash invested: $66,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,924/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,208

Max offer price $164,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-285	-5% $-352	+0% $-420	+5% $-487	+10% $-555
Rent	-10% $-552	-5% $-486	+0% $-420	+5% $-354	+10% $-288
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-359	base $-420	+0.5pp $-482	+1.0pp $-545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,625
• Closing costs: $7,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical $2,100
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $2,100
4. 2026-02-23
   status Active
5. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-19
   price $238,500
7. 2025-07-10
   listed $239,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,924 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,924 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,360
• − Property taxes: −$3,924
• − Insurance: −$1,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$6,938
• Taxable loss: −$9,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,238
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1098
• US rank: #12434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-17 Rental Removed $2,100 PMAR
• 2026-03-20 Listed for Rent $2,100 PMAR
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-02-04 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $238,500 PMAR
• 2025-07-10 Listed $239,500 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,924 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.