3904 Manzinita St

Fort Worth, TX 76137

$199,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-325/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-325/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (5.0% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $190k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Keller ISD (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Riverside El (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 488 students, 70% FRL); Fossil Hill Middle (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 838 students, 61% FRL); Fossil Ridge H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,329 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 19% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Keller ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.