172 Mill Pond Ln

Water Mill, NY 11976

$3,195,000A

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $44,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,755
• Tax + insurance: −$5,325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,337
• Net cashflow: $13,043/mo
• Annual: $156,520/yr
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.50%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $894,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $3.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($157k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($44k rent vs $3.19M).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.81M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.81M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $298k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $276k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.50M; list at $3.19M implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $895k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$477k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $44,460/mo this rent would consume 296% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.