172 Mill Pond Ln · Water Mill, NY 11976

$3,195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1998 0.47 ac lot $1424/sqft · 31% above area Est $3813k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a world of tranquility and elegance at the stunning Mill Pond property, nestled in the picturesque hamlet of Water Mill. Just moments away from the vibrant Southampton and Bridgehampton Villages and the pristine shores of Flying Point Ocean Beach, this extraordinary residence is a sanctuary for the senses, offering breathtaking sunsets and serene vistas that will leave you spellbound. Meticulously redesigned and renovated, this modern masterpiece spans over 3,500 sq. ft. and boasts four generous bedrooms and four and a half luxurious baths. As you enter, you'll be captivated by the grand living space featuring soaring 11-foot ceilings and an open-concept layout that perfectly aligns with today’s lifestyle, allowing for seamless interaction and effortless entertaining. A magnificent wall of glass stretches across the rear of the home, flooding the interiors with natural light and framing the spectacular water views that make this property truly unique. The custom chef’s kitchen and elegant dining area, adorned with exquisite finishes, are a dream come true for culinary enthusiasts and socialites alike. Ascend to the second floor, where 10-foot ceilings enhance the airy ambiance. The master suite is a personal oasis with unobstructed water views, while three additional guest suites provide luxurious accommodations for friends. Step outside to discover your own outdoor paradise, thoughtfully designed for both relaxation and entertainment. Whether you’re hosting intimate gatherings or grand celebrations, the serene backdrop of nature sets the stage for unforgettable moments. Plus, the potential to add a pool offers even more opportunities to create your dream outdoor retreat. Experience the perfect blend of modern luxury and nature’s beauty at the remarkable Mill Pond property. This is your chance to embrace a lifestyle of unparalleled elegance—don’t miss the opportunity to own your own slice of paradise!

Key facts

• Modern masterpiece
• Grand living space
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• METICULOUSLY REDESIGNED
• MODERN MASTERPIECE
• GRAND LIVING SPACE
• SOARING 11-FOOT CEILINGS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MAGNIFICENT WALL OF GLASS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $3.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($157k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($44k rent vs $3.19M).
• Recommended offer: $2.81M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $44,460/mo this rent would consume 296% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $298k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $276k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $895k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$477k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.81M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.50M; list at $3.19M implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $2,811,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.50%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,812,578
• List price: $3,195,000
• Delta: -16.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Magnolia Dr Unit 4B	0.11mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,459 (+10%)	9mo	$2,525,000	$1,027	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $2,512,654
• Equity at exit: $2,565,763

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.13×
• Total profit: $7,277,080
• Equity at exit: $5,231,038

Cash invested: $894,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $44,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,994 /mo · $47,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,331
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,337
• Net cashflow: $13,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $27,949

Max offer price $3,195,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15,251	-5% $14,147	+0% $13,043	+5% $11,939	+10% $10,835
Rent	-10% $9,531	-5% $11,287	+0% $13,043	+5% $14,799	+10% $16,556
Rate	-1.0pp $14,652	-0.5pp $13,856	base $13,043	+0.5pp $12,215	+1.0pp $11,373

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $798,750
• Closing costs: $95,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Millfarm Ln Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2648	$50,000	$18.88	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-04-15
    price $3,195,000 1986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1986 chars)

    Step into a world of tranquility and elegance at the stunning Mill Pond property, nestled in the picturesque hamlet of Water Mill. Just moments away from the vibrant Southampton and Bridgehampton Villages and the pristine shores of Flying Point Ocean Beach, this extraordinary residence is a sanctuary for the senses, offering breathtaking sunsets and serene vistas that will leave you spellbound. Meticulously redesigned and renovated, this modern masterpiece spans over 3,500 sq. ft. and boasts four generous bedrooms and four and a half luxurious baths. As you enter, you'll be captivated by the grand living space featuring soaring 11-foot ceilings and an open-concept layout that perfectly aligns with today’s lifestyle, allowing for seamless interaction and effortless entertaining. A magnificent wall of glass stretches across the rear of the home, flooding the interiors with natural light and framing the spectacular water views that make this property truly unique. The custom chef’s kitchen and elegant dining area, adorned with exquisite finishes, are a dream come true for culinary enthusiasts and socialites alike. Ascend to the second floor, where 10-foot ceilings enhance the airy ambiance. The master suite is a personal oasis with unobstructed water views, while three additional guest suites provide luxurious accommodations for friends. Step outside to discover your own outdoor paradise, thoughtfully designed for both relaxation and entertainment. Whether you’re hosting intimate gatherings or grand celebrations, the serene backdrop of nature sets the stage for unforgettable moments. Plus, the potential to add a pool offers even more opportunities to create your dream outdoor retreat. Experience the perfect blend of modern luxury and nature’s beauty at the remarkable Mill Pond property. This is your chance to embrace a lifestyle of unparalleled elegance—don’t miss the opportunity to own your own slice of paradise!

11. 2026-02-05
    listed $2,995,000 Active 1986-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1986 chars)

    Step into a world of tranquility and elegance at the stunning Mill Pond property, nestled in the picturesque hamlet of Water Mill. Just moments away from the vibrant Southampton and Bridgehampton Villages and the pristine shores of Flying Point Ocean Beach, this extraordinary residence is a sanctuary for the senses, offering breathtaking sunsets and serene vistas that will leave you spellbound. Meticulously redesigned and renovated, this modern masterpiece spans over 3,500 sq. ft. and boasts four generous bedrooms and four and a half luxurious baths. As you enter, you'll be captivated by the grand living space featuring soaring 11-foot ceilings and an open-concept layout that perfectly aligns with today’s lifestyle, allowing for seamless interaction and effortless entertaining. A magnificent wall of glass stretches across the rear of the home, flooding the interiors with natural light and framing the spectacular water views that make this property truly unique. The custom chef’s kitchen and elegant dining area, adorned with exquisite finishes, are a dream come true for culinary enthusiasts and socialites alike. Ascend to the second floor, where 10-foot ceilings enhance the airy ambiance. The master suite is a personal oasis with unobstructed water views, while three additional guest suites provide luxurious accommodations for friends. Step outside to discover your own outdoor paradise, thoughtfully designed for both relaxation and entertainment. Whether you’re hosting intimate gatherings or grand celebrations, the serene backdrop of nature sets the stage for unforgettable moments. Plus, the potential to add a pool offers even more opportunities to create your dream outdoor retreat. Experience the perfect blend of modern luxury and nature’s beauty at the remarkable Mill Pond property. This is your chance to embrace a lifestyle of unparalleled elegance—don’t miss the opportunity to own your own slice of paradise!

12. 2025-12-27
    historical
13. 2025-04-17
    listed $2,995,000 Active
14. 2025-04-11
    historical
15. 2025-03-28
    price $2,995,000
16. 2025-03-28
    historical
17. 2023-09-08
    price $3,499,000
18. 2020-12-22
    soldstatus $1,495,000
19. 2020-01-16
    soldstatus $998,000
20. 1987-12-08
    soldstatus $488,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $533,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$178,970
• − Property taxes: −$47,925
• − Insurance: −$15,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$42,681
• − Management: −$42,681
• − Depreciation: −$92,945
• Taxable income: $112,340
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26,962
• After-tax cash flow: $129,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+554.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $3,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-11 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $3,499,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2020-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,495,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $998,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $488,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,178 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.