1515 E St Patrick St

Rapid City, SD 57701

$39,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $764/mo
• Annual: $9,169/yr
• Cap rate: 29.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.07%
• DSCR: 4.65
• 1% rule: 3.30%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#34 in SD, #4,720 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robbinsdale Elementary - 14 (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #228 of 253 statewide, top 92%, 359 students, 100% FRL); East Middle School - 30 (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #121 of 143 statewide, top 87%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Central High School - 41 (math 35% / reading 61%, grade D, #106 of 151 statewide, top 71%, 1,768 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 36% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 20 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $40k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 2.5% in Rapid City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.