1515 E St Patrick St · Rapid City, SD 57701

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 2017 mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Recent 2024 upgrades include new siding, skirting, and a covered front porch. Includes a storage shed for added convenience. Buyer must be approved by park management. Great opportunity for affordable, move-in-ready living.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• New siding
• New skirting

Tags

• NEW SIDING
• NEW SKIRTING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the HERRING BONE subdivision
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Has view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Microwave; Refrigerator; Carpet flooring; Has cooling (window unit); Forced air heating
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 2.5% in Rapid City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#34 in SD, #4,720 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robbinsdale Elementary - 14 (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #228 of 253 statewide, top 92%, 359 students, 100% FRL); East Middle School - 30 (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #121 of 143 statewide, top 87%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Central High School - 41 (math 35% / reading 61%, grade D, #106 of 151 statewide, top 71%, 1,768 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 36% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 20 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $40k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.07%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,648
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
806 E Ohio St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+1%)	8mo	$115,000	$90	58
2312 Smith Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+7%)	8mo	$250,000	$183	57
814 E Ohio St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,355 (+6%)	1mo	$231,900	$171	56
930 E Oakland St	0.68mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,224 (-4%)	2mo	$239,000	$195	53
913 E St Francis St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,391 (+9%)	9mo	$260,300	$187	50
821 E Ohio St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-8%)	7mo	$266,000	$226	48
908 E Tallent St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-14%)	1mo	$240,000	$220	47
2103 Maywood Dr	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (-11%)	5mo	$209,900	$184	46
923 E Oakland St	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,224 (-4%)	9mo	$242,000	$198	45
2137 Maywood Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-14%)	8mo	$282,999	$259	43
2624 Hoefer Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+14%)	1mo	$310,000	$214	39
2345 E St Francis St	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,390 (+9%)	8mo	$320,000	$230	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $40,533
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $91,296
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57701

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $792	-5% $778	+0% $764	+5% $750	+10% $737
Rent	-10% $660	-5% $712	+0% $764	+5% $816	+10% $868
Rate	-1.0pp $784	-0.5pp $774	base $764	+0.5pp $754	+1.0pp $743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3335 Palm Dr Rapid City, SD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	22d	1	1.10mi
426 E Fairmont Blvd Rapid City, SD	3.0	2.0	990	$999	$1.01	22d	1	1.17mi
1230 Estes Park Ct Rapid City, SD	2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,035	$1.08	22d	9	1.27mi
118 Waterloo St Apt 110 Rapid City, SD	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	810	$1,180	$1.46	22d	7	1.44mi
3276 Jim St Rapid City, SD	2.0	1.0–2.0	718	$1,500	$2.09	22d	50	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 132 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    price $39,900 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Well-maintained 2017 mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Recent 2024 upgrades include new siding, skirting, and a covered front porch. Includes a storage shed for added convenience. Buyer must be approved by park management. Great opportunity for affordable, move-in-ready living.

19. 2026-05-04
    price $44,900 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Well-maintained 2017 mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Recent 2024 upgrades include new siding, skirting, and a covered front porch. Includes a storage shed for added convenience. Buyer must be approved by park management. Great opportunity for affordable, move-in-ready living.

20. 2026-03-17
    price $49,900 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Well-maintained 2017 mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Recent 2024 upgrades include new siding, skirting, and a covered front porch. Includes a storage shed for added convenience. Buyer must be approved by park management. Great opportunity for affordable, move-in-ready living.

21. 2026-02-22
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2026-01-21
    listed $39,000 Active
23. 2026-01-19
    listed $55,000 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Well-maintained 2017 mobile home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Recent 2024 upgrades include new siding, skirting, and a covered front porch. Includes a storage shed for added convenience. Buyer must be approved by park management. Great opportunity for affordable, move-in-ready living.

24. 2025-10-31
    price $45,000
25. 2025-09-19
    status Active
26. 2025-09-04
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2025-08-11
    price $50,000
28. 2025-06-19
    price $60,000
29. 2025-05-24
    price $70,000
30. 2025-05-22
    listed $75,000 Active
31. 2025-03-21
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
32. 2025-03-21
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
33. 2025-03-11
    listed Active Under Contract
34. 2025-03-11
    listed Active Under Contract
35. 2025-03-11
    listed $26,900
36. 2025-03-06
    listed $26,900
37. 2025-03-06
    listed $26,900
38. 2025-03-06
    listed $26,900
39. 2025-01-29
    price $26,900
40. 2025-01-29
    price $26,900
41. 2025-01-11
    listed $55,000 Active
42. 2024-12-09
    price $28,900
43. 2024-12-09
    price $28,900
44. 2024-11-06
    listed $39,900 Active
45. 2024-11-01
    price $32,000
46. 2024-11-01
    price $32,000
47. 2024-10-18
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
48. 2024-09-24
    price $35,000
49. 2024-09-24
    price $35,000
50. 2024-09-15
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,178
• After-tax cash flow: $6,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapid City Area School District 51-4
• NCES district ID: 4659820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,145
• Composite: 34.47/100
• National rank: #5189
• State rank: #50 of 59 in SD

Livability — Rapid City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #4720

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rapid City, SD
• County: Pennington County · 99,403 people
• City population: 99,403
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• Population (ZIP): 45,795
• Household income: $56,461
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,504 people
• By 2030: 133,370 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 147,505 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 160,507 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 197,585 · +57.4%
• By 2100: 241,736 · +92.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Native American 11% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.4% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+33.0 2012: R+29.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.12%
• Current HPI: 222.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

51 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $39,900 BHMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $44,900 BHMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $49,900 BHMLS
• 2026-02-22 Contingent — BHMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $39,000 BHMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $55,000 BHMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $45,000 BHMLS
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — BHMLS
• 2025-09-04 Contingent — BHMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $50,000 BHMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $60,000 BHMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $70,000 BHMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $75,000 BHMLS
• 2025-03-21 Sold (MLS) $25,000 BHMLS
• 2025-03-21 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MRAOR
• 2025-03-11 Listed — MRAOR
• 2025-03-11 Listed — BHMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $26,900 MRAOR
• 2025-03-06 Listed $26,900 MRAOR
• 2025-03-06 Listed $26,900 BHMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $26,900 MRAOR
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $26,900 MRAOR
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $26,900 BHMLS
• 2025-01-11 Listed $55,000 BHMLS
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $28,900 MRAOR
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $28,900 BHMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $39,900 BHMLS
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $32,000 MRAOR
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $32,000 BHMLS
• 2024-10-18 Sold (MLS) $55,000 BHMLS
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $35,000 BHMLS
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $35,000 MRAOR
• 2024-09-15 Listed $55,000 BHMLS
• 2024-09-08 Listed $43,900 MRAOR
• 2024-09-08 Price Changed $43,900 BHMLS
• 2024-09-07 Listed $49,900 BHMLS
• 2024-07-24 Sold (MLS) $43,900 BHMLS
• 2024-07-24 Sold (MLS) $43,900 MRAOR
• 2024-07-11 Pending — MRAOR
• 2024-07-07 Listed $47,000 MRAOR
• 2024-07-07 Listed $47,000 BHMLS
• 2024-03-05 Sold (MLS) $43,000 MRAOR
• 2024-03-05 Sold (MLS) $43,000 BHMLS
• 2024-03-01 Contingent — MRAOR
• 2024-02-22 Listed $47,500 MRAOR
• 2024-02-22 Listed $47,500 BHMLS
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $30,500 MRAOR
• 2023-08-23 Pending — MRAOR
• 2023-08-08 Price Changed $39,900 MRAOR
• 2023-07-16 Listed $54,900 MRAOR
• 2009-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $7,012,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,349 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.