380 MOUNTAIN Rd #813

Union City, NJ 07087

$484,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,356/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$808
• HOA: −$2,326
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $-3,026/mo
• Annual: $-36,309/yr
• Cap rate: -1.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -26.74%
• DSCR: -0.19
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $135,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $485k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $47k (90.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (30.8% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (90.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sara M. Gilmore Academy (math 45% / reading 68%, grade C+, #162 of 1,303 statewide, top 13%, 390 students, 57% FRL); Emerson Middle School (math 15% / reading 40%, grade F, #340 of 431 statewide, top 80%, 1,001 students, 87% FRL); Union City High School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #331 of 399 statewide, top 83%, 3,025 students, 83% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 69% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 287 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -1.2% vs local median 3.1% in Union City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $3,356/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 90% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.