2821 E Adams St

Phoenix, AZ 85034

$165,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $352/mo
• Annual: $4,224/yr
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Wilson Elementary District (4261) (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #235 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Primary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,022 of 1,109 statewide, top 93%, 495 students, 87% FRL); Wilson Elementary School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #169 of 218 statewide, top 79%, 582 students, 79% FRL); Camelback High School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #363 of 381 statewide, top 95%, 2,238 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 51% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 35 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.