2821 E Adams St · Phoenix, AZ 85034

$165,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1945 7,250 sqft lot Est $320k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2821 E Adams Street in Phoenix, AZ — a charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering incredible potential in the heart of the Central City neighborhood. Built in 1945 and featuring solid block construction, this 994-square-foot residence sits on a spacious 7,250-square-foot lot, providing ample room to expand, landscape, or create the outdoor space of your dreams. The property includes covered parking and no HOA, giving you the freedom to make it your own. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with plenty of natural light and opportunity to update and modernize to your personal style. Its central location offers convenient access to downtown Phoenix, major freeways, dining, an

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Central location
• No hoa

Tags

• SOLID BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• COVERED PARKING
• NO HOA
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing is non-assumable
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Dirt front yard; Dirt backyard; Built-up roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; Cooling: see remarks
• Interior features: Other flooring; Laundry inside
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Wilson Elementary District (4261) (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #235 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Primary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,022 of 1,109 statewide, top 93%, 495 students, 87% FRL); Wilson Elementary School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #169 of 218 statewide, top 79%, 582 students, 79% FRL); Camelback High School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #363 of 381 statewide, top 95%, 2,238 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 51% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 36 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,068
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 E Adams St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	869 (-13%)	5mo	$280,000	$322	48
3302 E Taylor St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,038 (+4%)	14mo	$335,000	$323	40
3317 E Taylor St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+13%)	16mo	$342,000	$305	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $107,078
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $288,369
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85034

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,297/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $399	+0% $352	+5% $305	+10% $259
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $282	+0% $352	+5% $422	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $394	base $352	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2802 E Adams St Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	3d	1	0.04mi
3255 E Roosevelt St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1104	$1,432	$1.30	11d	1	0.83mi
3442 E Melvin St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	0d	1	0.86mi
1333 N 24th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,737	$2.21	0d	36	1.10mi
125 N 18th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,899	$2.02	0d	14	1.24mi
1632 E Adams St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1035	$2,395	$2.31	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-05
   historical
5. 2026-03-03
   status Active
6. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-13
   status Active
8. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
9. 2026-02-04
   status Active
10. 2026-01-26
    status Pending
11. 2026-01-22
    status Active
12. 2025-12-10
    status Pending
13. 2025-11-10
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,297 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,297 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,297
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,624
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$390
• After-tax cash flow: $3,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson Elementary District (4261)
• NCES district ID: 0409390
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $24,609
• Composite: 9.23/100
• National rank: #9861
• State rank: #235 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,854
• Household income: $63,559
• Rent vs Own: 77.5% rent · 22.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 480.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 31% Two or more races 27% Native American 9% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 42% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.05%
• Current HPI: 557.7026
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.96%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $165,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,297 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.