2729 Conch Hollow Dr

Brandon, FL 33511

$210,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · Built 2004 · Townhouse · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$450
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-833/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-833/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 457 students, 76% FRL); Rodgers Middle Magnet School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 1,128 students, 48% FRL); Bloomingdale High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 2,304 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.