2729 Conch Hollow Dr · Brandon, FL 33511

$210,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2004 1,386 sqft lot $450/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome located in the desirable gated community of Vista Cay. Offering 1,718 square feet of living space and a 1-car attached garage, this home features a spacious and functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The main level boasts a generous kitchen that flows seamlessly into the combined living and dining area, along with a convenient half bath for guests. The living room opens to a covered, screened lanai—ideal for relaxing outdoors. Tile flooring runs throughout the first floor, while all bedrooms upstairs are comfortably carpeted. Upstairs, you’ll find all three bedrooms, including a primary suite with an en-suite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a tub/shower combination. Two additional bedrooms share a full bath, and the upstairs laundry closet comes complete with a washer and dryer for added convenience. Enjoy easy access to the community pool, located just steps from your back door. This home offers comfort, convenience, and a prime location within Vista Cay—perfect as a primary residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Generous kitchen
• Community pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COVERED SCREENED LANAI
• GENEROUS KITCHEN
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY CLOSET
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-833/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 457 students, 76% FRL); Rodgers Middle Magnet School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 1,128 students, 48% FRL); Bloomingdale High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 2,304 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-44,935
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-69,818
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33511

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,407

Max offer price $199,954

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $3	+0% $-69	+5% $-142	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-253	-5% $-161	+0% $-69	+5% $22	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-16	base $-69	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Summer Breeze Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,250	$1.46	1d	1	0.20mi
1305 Lakehurst Way Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	2221	$2,550	$1.15	5d	1	0.26mi
1407 Wakefield Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,200	$1.27	24d	1	0.30mi
826 Milano Cir Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,029	$1.94	1d	16	0.31mi
924 Ridge Haven Dr Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1956	$2,700	$1.38	7d	1	0.34mi
924 Ridge Haven Dr Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1956	$2,700	$1.38	26d	1	0.34mi
1002 Creekbridge Rd Brandon, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1062	$1,915	$1.80	0d	6	0.48mi
856 Creekway Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,045	$1.31	24d	1	0.49mi
609 Princeton St Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,150	$1.28	26d	1	0.53mi
5403 Lindburg St Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,300	$1.26	26d	1	0.64mi
1434 Hatcher Loop Dr Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1885	$2,795	$1.48	1d	1	0.64mi
1904 Firethorn Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,095	$1.18	24d	1	0.65mi
1904 Firethorn Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,095	$1.18	18d	1	0.65mi
5422 Watson Rd Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,495	$1.20	14d	1	0.72mi
1407 Trail Boss Ln Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,395	$1.29	20d	1	0.74mi
1413 Tiverton Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,200	$1.69	20d	1	0.77mi
1332 Hatcher Loop Dr Brandon, FL	4.0	2.5	2185	$2,500	$1.14	26d	1	0.79mi
2023 Green Juniper Ln Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,050	$1.57	0d	1	0.83mi
1540 Chepacket St Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,220	$1.57	26d	1	0.84mi
1024 Hallwood Loop Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,245	$1.53	1d	1	0.84mi
1440 Tiverton Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,995	$1.60	22d	1	0.85mi
5790 Stockport St Riverview, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,180	$2.33	5d	37	0.88mi
1324 Franford Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	2054	$3,000	$1.46	26d	1	0.89mi
11112 Swansea St Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1731	$2,500	$1.44	19d	1	0.94mi
1403 Scotch Pine Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,726	$1.49	16d	1	0.96mi
1505 Scotch Pine Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,295	$1.38	18d	1	0.98mi
1443 Scotch Pine Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,545	$1.41	1d	1	1.02mi
816 Centerwood Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1391	$2,009	$1.44	26d	1	1.05mi
1661 Fluorshire Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,150	$1.58	26d	1	1.05mi
1850 Providence Lakes Blvd Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,068	$2.52	0d	14	1.05mi
808 Pebblewood Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,075	$1.81	14d	1	1.12mi
1212 Alpine Lake Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,199	$1.88	18d	1	1.13mi
1523 Birchstone Ave Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,271	$1.56	7d	1	1.13mi
1604 Sanderling Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,225	$1.50	1d	1	1.14mi
914 Axlewood Cir Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,275	$1.57	1d	1	1.22mi
1020 Red Oak Cir Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1536	$2,299	$1.50	4d	1	1.23mi
1220 Barmere Ln Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	2036	$1,400	$0.69	7d	1	1.24mi
3124 Bloomingdale Villas Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	26d	1	1.25mi
1919 Sterling Palms Ct Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,214	$2.43	1d	11	1.25mi
2442 Knight Island Dr Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,500	$1.35	26d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $210,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,775 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,775 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,775 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   status $225,775 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    status $225,775 Pending 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,775 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,775 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,775 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,775 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,775 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $225,775 Active 1133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1133 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome located in the desirable gated community of Vista Cay. Offering 1,718 square feet of living space and a 1-car attached garage, this home features a spacious and functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The main level boasts a generous kitchen that flows seamlessly into the combined living and dining area, along with a convenient half bath for guests. The living room opens to a covered, screened lanai—ideal for relaxing outdoors. Tile flooring runs throughout the first floor, while all bedrooms upstairs are comfortably carpeted. Upstairs, you’ll find all three bedrooms, including a primary suite with an en-suite bathroom featuring dual sinks and a tub/shower combination. Two additional bedrooms share a full bath, and the upstairs laundry closet comes complete with a washer and dryer for added convenience. Enjoy easy access to the community pool, located just steps from your back door. This home offers comfort, convenience, and a prime location within Vista Cay—perfect as a primary residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity.

17. 2022-12-31
    historical
18. 2022-09-19
    listed $309,000 Active
19. 2022-04-10
    status Pending
20. 2022-04-08
    status Active
21. 2022-04-07
    status Pending
22. 2022-04-07
    status Active
23. 2022-04-07
    status Pending
24. 2022-04-04
    listed $309,900 Active
25. 2021-09-24
    soldstatus $250,000 Closed
26. 2021-09-24
    soldstatus $250,000
27. 2021-08-24
    status Pending
28. 2021-08-14
    status Active
29. 2021-08-11
    status Pending
30. 2021-08-05
    listed $229,900 Active
31. 2021-04-21
    historical
32. 2021-04-01
    listed $199,000 Active
33. 2019-06-04
    historical
34. 2019-03-27
    listed $173,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$984
• After-tax cash flow: $151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #507

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 92,716
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 62,138
• Household income: $81,301
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3073.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -279.49%
• Current HPI: 333.4744
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+30.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $225,775 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-19 Listed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Listed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-24 Sold (MLS) $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-05 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-27 Listed $173,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-23.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $29 · -86.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.