1015 Old Fall Creek Rd

Monticello, KY 42633

$125,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,159/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $184/mo
• Annual: $2,203/yr
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $125k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.