1015 Old Fall Creek Rd · Monticello, KY 42633

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1995 0.46 ac lot $86/sqft · 22% below area Est $161k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential in this 1456 sq ft +/- double wide home on a permanent foundation, perfectly situated in a highly desirable location just minutes from Old Fall Creek Boat Ramp and Conley Bottom Resort. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this property offers a spacious layout ready to be transformed into your ideal getaway or income-producing investment. Enjoy outdoor living with a large front porch—perfect for relaxing after a day on the water—and a fully fenced backyard providing privacy and space for pets or gatherings. Whether you're looking for a vacation retreat, rental opportunity, or a project to make your own, this property offers endless possibilities. Please note: Home is not move-in ready and will require remodeling. Being sold as-is. Don't miss your chance to invest in a prime location with strong potential! Call today to schedule a private showing!

Key facts

• Double wide home
• Large front porch
• Permanent foundation

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE HOME
• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $125k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,899 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.30%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,241
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -22.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,625
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,289
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42633

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $293/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $219	+0% $184	+5% $148	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $138	+0% $184	+5% $229	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $215	base $184	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $129,000 Active 896-char remark

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    Discover the potential in this 1456 sq ft +/- double wide home on a permanent foundation, perfectly situated in a highly desirable location just minutes from Old Fall Creek Boat Ramp and Conley Bottom Resort. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, this property offers a spacious layout ready to be transformed into your ideal getaway or income-producing investment. Enjoy outdoor living with a large front porch—perfect for relaxing after a day on the water—and a fully fenced backyard providing privacy and space for pets or gatherings. Whether you're looking for a vacation retreat, rental opportunity, or a project to make your own, this property offers endless possibilities. Please note: Home is not move-in ready and will require remodeling. Being sold as-is. Don't miss your chance to invest in a prime location with strong potential! Call today to schedule a private showing!

18. 2008-10-02
    soldstatus $79,900
19. 2005-01-11
    soldstatus $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $293 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 267.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$293
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$30
• After-tax cash flow: $2,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 2105790
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $30,391
• Composite: 21.38/100
• National rank: #8358
• State rank: #142 of 165 in KY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,609

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,477 people
• By 2030: 18,776 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,199 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 15,602 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 11,883 · -39.0%
• By 2100: 8,300 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.5% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.14%
• Current HPI: 227.5936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $129,000 ImagineMLS
• 2008-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2005-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $293 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.