431 E Elm St

Cowgill, MO 64637

$99,500B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1974 · Other · Pending · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $351/mo
• Annual: $4,207/yr
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $27,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#889 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cowgill R-VI (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #505 of 535 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cowgill Elem. (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 45 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cowgill R-VI average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caldwell County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.