431 E Elm St · Cowgill, MO 64637

$99,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,848 sqft · Other public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1974 1.21 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

Key facts

• Bathroom vanity
• New french doors
• 1.21 acres

Tags

• 1.21 ACRES
• BRAND NEW CABINETS
• BATHROOM VANITY
• NEW FRENCH DOORS
• ROOF REPLACED
• ELECTRIC AND WATER HOOKUP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces side); Basement access to parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; Raised ranch; Approximately 41–50 years old
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/dining combo
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Raised ranch floor plan; Concrete walk-out basement; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#889 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cowgill R-VI (rural): math 21% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #505 of 535 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cowgill Elem. (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 45 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cowgill R-VI average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $76,512
• Equity at exit: $89,637

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.46×
• Total profit: $207,737
• Equity at exit: $193,307

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64637

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $949/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $379	+0% $351	+5% $322	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $301	+0% $351	+5% $400	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $376	base $351	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-22
   price $99,500
3. 2026-02-15
   price $109,000
4. 2025-11-20
   price $119,900
5. 2025-11-04
   price $134,900
6. 2025-10-26
   listed $145,000 Active
7. 2021-10-13
   soldstatus
8. 2021-10-11
   soldstatus Closed 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

9. 2021-10-01
   status Pending 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

10. 2021-09-22
    status Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

11. 2021-08-29
    status Pending 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

12. 2021-08-05
    historical Active Under Contract 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

13. 2021-07-29
    price $80,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

14. 2021-07-23
    price $99,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

15. 2021-07-12
    listed $110,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Back on the market to no fault of the sellers! Great investment property! Bring all offers! 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath true ranch home with open floor plan. NEW metal roof less than a year old, new water heater, new sink in bathroom, and Full walkout basement with built in safe. Very solid home, with oversized bedrooms, large closets, and concrete outbuilding on 1.5 acre lot! Sold as is!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$949
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $2,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$661
• After-tax cash flow: $3,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cowgill R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2910230
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $38,139
• Composite: 20.81/100
• National rank: #13735
• State rank: #505 of 535 in MO

Livability — Cowgill

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #889
• US rank: #25432

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cowgill, MO
• Population (ZIP): 488

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,255 people
• By 2030: 7,838 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 7,034 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 6,330 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 5,206 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 4,436 · -46.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.3) · D 18.9% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.9pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -61.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.3 2020: R+60.4 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.98%
• Current HPI: 486.8207
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $99,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $109,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $119,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $134,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Listed $145,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-11 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-01 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-22 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-29 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-05 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-29 Price Changed $80,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-23 Price Changed $99,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-12 Listed $110,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $949 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.