Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40165
$203,000D+
3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,296 sqft ·
Built 1994
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,795/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,065
Tax + insurance
−$338
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$377
Net cashflow
$15/mo
Annual
$185/yr
Cap rate
6.38%
Cash-on-cash
0.32%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$56,840
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($185/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (11.6% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $180k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $45k; list at $203k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8P0TP40ZE4VCSY
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29