407 Lower Spring Ln

Centerville, PA 15358

$78,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $164/mo
• Annual: $1,964/yr
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($867 rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $628 of equity ($539 loan paydown + $89 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#864 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bethlehem-Center SD (rural): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #448 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $78k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.