407 Lower Spring Ln · Centerville, PA 15358

$78,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1920 1,629 sqft lot Est $82k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS TAKE NOTE, this property along with the front property at 407 Spring Street (ML#1723210) needs to be part of your portfolio! This property, which sits behind 449 Spring Street is perfect as an investment property, and when purchased along with 449 Spring could also be an excellent in-law suite. The property also features a huge basement, and a 2-car detached garage. The laundry area is set up in the main bath, which is just another added convenience. SELLE NEEDS TO SELL BOTH PROPERTIES TOGETHER.

Key facts

• Huge basement
• Laundry area
• Detached garage

Tags

• HUGE BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LAUNDRY AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener (2 parking spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Foundation with full basement
• Exterior features: Small lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Some electric appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level (8x16)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Full walk-out basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($867 rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#864 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bethlehem-Center SD (rural): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #448 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $628 of equity ($539 loan paydown + $89 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $78k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,212
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Jane St Unit E Beau	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (-3%)	2mo	$80,000	$102	78
114 Armour St	0.30mi	2/1.5 (+1)	784 (-3%)	21mo	$35,100	$45	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $8,560
• Equity at exit: $23,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $31,590
• Equity at exit: $28,116

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15358

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $957/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $660

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-28
   listed $78,000 Active
3. 2004-02-13
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,095 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$957
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$832
• − Management: −$832
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $754
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem-Center SD
• NCES district ID: 4203600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,354
• Composite: 24.81/100
• National rank: #7596
• State rank: #448 of 539 in PA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #9044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, PA
• City population: 1,605
• Population (ZIP): 1,141

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,060 people
• By 2030: 207,168 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 202,738 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 195,269 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 175,588 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 145,827 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.11%
• Current HPI: 148.6231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+290.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $78,000 West Penn MLS
• 2004-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $957 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.