127 Grouse Ridge Ln

Beech Mountain Lakes, PA 18222

$199,999C+

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,118/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$402
• HOA: −$153
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $70/mo
• Annual: $835/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($835/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#698 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Drums El/Ms (math 17% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,042 of 1,518 statewide, top 69%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Hazleton Area Hs (math 53% / reading 8%, grade F, #347 of 437 statewide, top 79%, 3,795 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Beech Mountain Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.